Getting it right on Syria and the Arab revolutions

Excellent article in The Socialist Worker – affiliated to the trotskyite SWP – on Syria:

The past few days may have seen the balance of forces tilt decisively against Bashar al-Assad and his regime. Paradoxically, a significant section of the Western left seems to have tilted as decisively in their favour.

Take, for example, a widely circulated interview with Tariq Ali, where he claims that the struggle in Syria is part of “a new process of recolonisation”. Although I have great respect and affection for Tariq, I think this is nonsense. (…)

Those in the Western left who allow a reflexive and unthinking “anti-imperialism” to set them against the Syrian revolution are simply confessing their own bankruptcy.

I agree wholeheartedly. Not only are many on the left (not only there though) unable to think through the Arab Spring and its spinoffs in reality-based terms, but they are hostage to old ways of thinking, notably as to the role of Western powers. If there is something that has to be completely dismissed in today’s Arab world, it is the ability of Western powers to shape an Arab country’s politics according to their wishes. While Arab countries do not live in a bubble and are of course amenable to foreign influence, no longer will foreign – read Western – powers be able to dictate the terms of leadership struggles or even foreing policy (Libya is an odd case here). They can weigh in, but their influence is limited as compared to the weight of public opinion and the political forces present in the institutions of the state.

What influence did any Western power have over the Tunisian revolution, or even the Egyptian one? The height of US influence the last year was its ability to get its NGO workers out of Egypt, but that’s hardly a decisive influence on an issue of substance in Egyptian politics. The issue of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel is probably the one issue on which the US government has been able to exert influence, but it is also arguably an issue that Egyptians themselves would solve through some sort of statu quo – no Egyptian I know has any aptite for a military stand-off with Israel to start with, although many want the peace treaty to remain just that, and cease to be the fealty oath it turned into under the Mubarak years.

Take the case of Iraq: sure, the US was able to invade and occupy that country, smash its political structure, entrench sectarianism and kill and maim well over one hundred thousand Iraqi civilians – but the end result is a government they do not control – if any foreign country wields decisive influence over Iraq it is Iran – and which basically kicked US troops out of the country. Bombing and killing the USA may continue to do in Iraq in the future, but they are not able of directing its politics the way they once dreamt of.

Tunisians and Egyptians gained their freedom by relying on their own strength and commitment, rejecting any foreign involvement. While quite some Syrian revolutionaries are now asking for foreign military intervention – understandably so in view of the massacres committed by régime forces – not all of them do so, and interest for such an option seems lukewarm outside of the armchair editorialist and liberal interventionism cottage industry. But what is undisputed is the massive lack of domestic legitimacy that Bashar el Assad’s régime has – you don’t need to have actually read Michel Seurat’s « L’Etat de barbarie » to recognise that.

Not any dictator opposed – although in the case of Syria that claim would be dubious, as he wasn’t actively opposed by any Western country since the end of the Bush presidency (France let go of its opposition once Syrian troops left Lebanon in 2005 and Hariri-funded Chirac left the presidency to Sarkozy) before he started slaughtering his own population – by Western powers is necessarily worthy of support. That was true in Serbia in the 90’s, Iraq from 1991 to 2003, and is still true in Syria today. Not everything that happens in Arab countries is the result of CIA memos, Mossad plots, Foreign Office instructions or Open Society grants, and if the State Department wants to see the back of Bashar, for all my hostility to the successive US governments’ foreign policy, I find it hard not to share that wish. And I remain adamantly opposed to any NATO intervention, in the Middle East or anywhere else for that matter – it is dubious whether this military alliance still has a raison d’être, but whatever is left only justifies defensive missions.

La Tunisie vue de France, ou l’obsession de l’islam

L’orientaliste français Maxime Rodinson avait écrit un livre intitulé « La fascination de l’islam« . Aujourd’hui, il faudrait parler de l’obsession de l’islam – combien d’articles ou de reportages sur le Maroc, la Tunisie ou l’Egypte dans les médias occidentaux sans qu’il soit mention d’islam, d’islamistes, d’alcool, de sharia ou de voile? Combien d’universitaires spécialisé dans l’étude de tel pays – l’Iran ou la Tunisie – sont-ils invités à s’exprimer sur un pays totalement différent – l’Egypte ou la Pakistan – sous prétexte qu’il soit également musulman? Je radote, mais on en vient à s’extasier lorsqu’on tombe sur un livre – tel par exemple « La force de l’obéissance » de Béatrice Hibou sur le contrôle de l’économie tunisienne par Benali – qui peut traiter en profondeur d’un pays musulman sans jamais évoquer les termes « fatwa », « ijtihad » et « sharia », ou sur des livres qui tel « Allah n’y est pour rien » d’Emmanuel Todd qui privilégient des réalités sociales au discours idéologique ou au brassage de poncifs. Rares sont les journalistes spécialisés dans la couverture des luttes sociales des pays musulmans, bien plus déterminantes pour expliquer la révolution en Tunisie ou en Egypte que le voile ou la burqa – je pense notamment au journaliste suédois Per Björklund, ayant couvert les grèves de Mehalla en Egypte en 2008, et expulsé en 2009 par le régime Moubarak, spécialisé dans la couverture du mouvement ouvrier égyptien.

Une récente étude de Sana Sbouaï publiée sur le légendaire site militant tunisien Nawaat, confirme, preuves à l’appui, ce biais: passant en revue la presse écrite quotidienne dite de qualité en France – soit Le Monde, Le Figaro et Libération – et sa couverture de la Tunisie post-Ben Ali, la conclusion n’étonne guère.

En réalisant une étude sémantique des articles publiés sur les sites internet des journaux Libération, Le Monde et Le Figaro entre le 23 octobre 2011 et le 10 avril 2012, on se rend compte que les journaux français ont du mal à sortir de leur grille de lecture et continuent à se focaliser sur la question de l’islamisme.

Le trio de tête des mots les plus utilisés dans les articles est : Ennahdha, Parti(s) et Islamistes. Ce résultat donne une idée des thématiques sur lesquelles les journalistes français se focalisent. Ainsi sur les 31 articles produits pendant cette période Libération a utilisé l’occurrence Ennahdha 157 fois, quasiment autant de fois que Le Monde, qui l’a utilisé 165, mais avec plus du double d’article publié : 72 articles sur la même période. Le Figaro lui a parlé 136 fois du parti Ennahdha sur les 56 articles produits. (Nawaat.org)

L’actualité tunisienne en est ainsi réduite à Ennahda, à la laïcité et aux salafistes – ce sont sans doute les domaines où le correspondant ou envoyé spécial français moyen, généralement non-arabophone, aura à faire le moins d’efforts pour boucler un article – n’est-ce pas Caroline Fourest? Le cas français est évidemment extrême (1) dans son obsession psychopathologique de tout ce qui touche à l’islam – c’est après tout un pays où la viande halal et les horaires réservées aux femmes dans les piscines publiques sont sérieusement considérés comme des questions politiques dignes d’une campagne présidentielle. On se rappellera, même si on n’apprécie guère l’intrusion de concepts psychologiques dans l’analyse des faits politiques, la formule d’Emmanuel Terray parlant du débat français de 2004 sur l’interdiction du voile à l’école publique d' »hystérie politique »  – le moins qu’on puisse dire c’est que l’étant du patient s’est nettement dégradé depuis.

(1) Mais pour être honnête, peu de pays occidentaux échappent à cette obsession – les Pays-Bas en sont un autre exemple éclatant.

Some legal aspects of the Egypt-Israel gas deal (part I)

I’ve long wanted to write a post about the legal aspects of the Egypt-Israel natural gas deal without taking the time to do so, but its probable breakdown makes this a moral imperative. Correct and specific legal information on what is after all a commercial transaction subject to the usual confidentiality clauses has been hard to find, and much more could probably be found by exploring Israeli (and thus Hebrew) sources, but I’ll leave that to Israeli media or bloggers. The specific legal architecture of the 2005 Egypt-Israeli gas sale deal is sketchy, but I think the following gives a relatively reliable picture.

I – The legal context: the gas contracts are based on a bilateral inter-governmental agreement

First, there are two parallel legal tracks here: there’s first an overarching agreement between the governments of Egypt and Israel on the gas sale, contrary to what many, me included, have thought (the second legal track being the contractual arrangements between the different Egyptian and Israeli companies involved).

« In the last few years, when lawsuits were filed in Egypt against the sale of gas to Israel, the government often claimed that it was only selling gas to EMG, and has no transactional relationship with Israel ».

Until a few days ago, I thought as much: the contracts were presumably signed between Egyptian and Israeli gas or energy companies – more on them later – with no explicit, direct legal involvement of either the Egyptian or the Israeli governements. Contrary to what many think, the Treaty of Peace between the State of Israel and the Arab Republic of Egypt  (the version on the Israeli MFA’s website is more comprehensive) does not contain any undertaking by Egypt to sell gas to Israel – there is a clause on trade in annex II, but it doesn’t impose a duty on Egypt to supply gas to Israel:

Article 2: Economic and Trade Relations

1. The Parties agree to remove all discriminatory barriers to normal economic relations and to terminate economic boycotts of each other upon completion of the interim withdrawal.

2. As soon as possible, and not later than six months after the completion of the interim withdrawal, the Parties will enter negotiations with a view to concluding an agreement on trade and commerce for the purpose of promoting beneficial economic relations.

There is however a memorandum of understanding dated March 26, 1979 between Israel and the USA whereby the US guarantees Israel’s oil supplies, but Egypt is not party to it, and it does not cover natural gas. But then I stumbled – by chance – on the 2005 Memorandum of understanding relating to the purchase and the transmission through a pipeline of natural gas signed between the governements of Egypt and Israel – you’ll find below the provisions that I find relevant to this dispute.

The Government of the State of Israel and the Governement of the Arab Republic of Egypt, hereinafter referred to as the « Parties »,

(…) Aware of the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Arab Republic of Egypt during its meeting held on 18 September 2000, authorizing the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum represented by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation to conclude the necessary contract with Eastern Mediterranean Gas Company, an Egyptian joint-stock company, hereinafter referred to as « EMG« , for the export of quantities of Egyptian natural gas to the consuming markets in the Mediterranean countries as well as the European markets;

Welcoming contracts between EMG and Israeli companies such as the contract between the Israeli Electric Corporation Ltd., hereinafter refered to as « IEC », and EMG for the supply of natural gas originating from Egypt to Israel, through a pipeline to be constructed between El Arish and Ashkelon, for a period of 15 (fifteen) years, renewable by mutuall agreemnt, as well as additional contracts to be concluded between EMG and other Israeli companies;

Have agreed the following:

Article 1 General: The purchase of natural gas, its transmission through a pipeline between El Arish and Ashkelon, including the construction of the pipeline and its operation, shall be in accordance with the terms of this Memorandum of Understanding and in accordance with and subject to the laws of the State under whose jurisdiction it lies.

Article 2 Guarantee of supply: The Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt guarantees the continuous and uninterrupted supply of the natural gas contracted and/or to be contracted such as between EMG and IEC for the initial 15 years as well as for any extended period, according to the provisions of the contract and for a yearly total amount of up to 7 BCM (seven billion cubic meters). The same guarantee shall apply to any other entity importing gas from Egypt to Israel. This guarantee will start on the date of the activation of any contract of purchase of natural gas from egypt.

Article 3: Subject to its law and the provisions of this MOU each Party shall facilitate the implementation of this MOU.

Article 4 Safety and security:

(1) Each Government shall have the right to determine, in accordance with its own laws, the safety and security measures which are to govern the construction and operation of the part of the pipeline under its jurisdiction.

(2) Operation of the pipeline, or any part thereof, shall not commence until each party has issued all necessary authorizations and permits in accordance with their national legal requirements. (…)

Article 7 Tripartite agreement: The Egyptian Government designates the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and the Egyptian Gas Holding Company (EGAS) as representatives of the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum in signing the tripartite agreement as the First Party in the agreement guaranteeing natural gas supply, with EMG as the Second Party in the agreement, and IEC as the Third Party in the agreement. The same shall apply to any other entity importing gas from Egypt into Israel and/or consuming gas from Egypt in Israel.

Article 8 Consultations: The parties, recognizing each other’s legitimate interest in safeguarding the supply of natural gas from Egypt to Israel may consult each other with a view to find a solution to outstanding issues.

Article 9 Entry into force: (1) This Memorandum shall enter into force on the date of the latter of the diplomatic notes by which the Parties notify each other that their internal legal requirements for the entering into force of the Memorandum has been complied with. (…)

Done at Cairo, Egypt, on the 30 day (sic) of June 2005 which corresponds to the 23rd day if Sivan 5765 (…)

Some remarks: I’m not impressed by the quality of the legal drafting here – this is a shoddy and hastily drafted agreement. As a jurist, there are many issues I would have expected to see tackled in such an agreement – I’ve seen grants contracts for 25.000 € music festivals with more substantive legal content than this MoU, and a cursory glance into the Gas Regulation 2012 volume, containing a 361-pages overview of gas laws around the world, does indicate that there are possibly one or two issues that may have been overlooked. There is for instance no arbitration clause should consultations fail to achieve a compromise between the parties, nor are the different steps of the consultations phase detailed.

Or take article 1 for instance: it states that the sale and transmission of Egypt’s natural gas to Israel shall be « in accordance with and subject to the laws of the State under whose jurisdiction it lies« . So, if Egypt’s People’s assembly votes a law barring the sale of natural gas to Israel or mandating that the price of that gas should be three times the market price, that would be in accordance with the MoU, right? It doesn’t make much sense to allow such unqualified loopholes in an inter-governmental agreement governing highly contentious multi-billion sales of natural gas.

More importantly, the lasting impression one gets when reading this MoU is that it was drafted by the Israeli government (although if that is the case I’m underwhelmed by their legal service): while Egypt takes upon itself wide-ranging guarantees regarding the « continuous and uninterrupted » supply of natural gas to Israel (you will note that there is no force majeure clause, or no mitigation of Egypt’s wide-ranging guarantee), the Israeli government undertakes no corresponding guarantee vis-à-vis Egypt, as regards payments or price levels (no price revision clause), for instance. It is quite strange to see a government guaranteeing a private company’s supplies – EMG’s in this case – to another commercial operator such as the IEC on the Israeli side to such an absolute and unqualified extent. There is for instance no statement that Egypt’s guarantee is one of last resort, no indication of prior procedural steps or time-limits for the guarantee to play, and more importantly still there is no financial ceiling.

A more appropriate drafting from an Egyptian point of view would have been that the Egyptian government undertook not to unreasonably or unjustifiably hinder or obstruct said gas supplies, and to enter into prior consultations with its Israeli counterpart if it were envisaging action likely to substantially affect the supplies of natural gas to Israel. The absolute guarantee provided by this MoU seems unreasonable, and I would be interested to hear from better informed readers if other inter-governmental MoUs concerning oil or gas supplies contain similar wide-ranging guarantee clauses, especially in the absence of a reciprocal guarantee of payments from the buyer’s government.

Even more troubling, from the Egyptian point of view: the Egyptian government’s undertaking is not limited to the known parties to the 2005 gas sale contract, but to all parties of all Egyptian gas sales contracts with Israel thereafter. And the icing on the cake: the MoU is indefinite, with no limitation in time. Even the formalia indicates that the MoU template was Israeli – no Arabic version, and the date of the agreement indicated as per the Gregorian and Jewish calendars, with no mention of the date according to the Islamic calendar…

It is therefore necessary to resort to the general legal definition of a guarantee – see The Oxford Companion to Law (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1980, p. 542):

A guarantee is an accessory contract whereby one party undertakes to be answerable for the debt, default or miscarriage of another, who is primarily liable to a third party. The surety’s liability does not arise until the principal debtor has defaulted and the duration and extent of that liability depend on the terms of the contract. Before recourse can be had to him, any conditions precedent to his liability must be fulfilled.

While Egypt’s guarantee implicitly applies in case of default, it is unconditional, and no direct references are made to the contract between the principal debtors in this case, EGAS and EGPC, and EMG on the one hand and IEC on the other.

A comparison between the 2005 Egypt-Israel gas supply MoU and the 1979 USA-Israel oil supply MoU is telling: the US issued no unlimited – the MoU was signed with a 15 years validity, covering the period 1975-1990 – or unconditional guarantee – its undertaking is valid only if the US meets its own requirements, and as for transportation the US only undertakes to « make every effort« . More importantly still, « in any event the United States will be reimbursed by Israel for the costs incurred by the United States in providing oil to Israel hereunder« …

Then there is the legal status of the MoU: while it’s not labelled a treaty, it clearly intends to produce binding legal effects, as evidenced by article 9 (1):

This Memorandum shall enter into force on the date of the latter of the diplomatic notes by which the Parties notify each other that their internal legal requirements for the entering into force of the Memorandum has been complied with.

This is a procedure akin to that surrounding the signature and ratification of treaties. The 1969 Vienna Convention on the law of treaties states:

“treaty” means an international agreement concluded between States in written form and governed by international law, whether embodied in a single instrument or in two or more related instruments and whatever its particular designation (article 2.1.a)

It adds :

Article 11: Means of expressing consent to be bound by a treaty

The consent of a State to be bound by a treaty may be expressed by signature, exchange of instruments constituting a treaty, ratification, acceptance, approval or accession, or by any other means if so agreed.

Furthermore, the 2005 MoU does not have abstract or political aims (unlike some friendship or co-operation treaties), nor have the parties only expressed mere intentions (« the parties endeavour etc »): on the contrary, Egypt’s guarantee as to the gas supply is clear and unconditional; the provisions on environmental protection (article 5 of the MoU) and especially those on taxes (article 6 of the MoU – a tax exemption régime is set up) show unequivocally that both parties intended for the MoU to produce binding legal effects.

Accordingly, the 2005 MoU should be considered as an international treaty between Israel and Egypt, whose object is to guarantee the fulfillment of an Egyptian private company’s contractual obligations towards its Israeli clients. Robin Mill’s assertion in Foreign Policy – – is therefore unfounded in the present case.

Interestingly, and that’s yet another weakness, the MoU contains no provision on its termination. The provisions of the 1969 Vienna convention would then apply (see footnote (1) for the applicable provisions thereof).

Egypt could possibly invoke article 151 of its 1971 Constitution (it was in force in 2005, and still is to a large extent, despite the 2011 Constitutional declaration approved by referendum), which laid down the procedure for ratification of treaties, and mandated a ratification by the People’s assembly for commercial treaties or those imposing a burden on the state treasury – which could be said to be the case here with the unconditional supply guarantee undertaken by the Egyptian government vis-à-is the Israeli government, not to mention the:

Article 151 The President of Republic shall conclude international treaties and forward them to the People’s Assembly with the necessary explanations. The treaties shall have the force of law after their conclusion, ratification and publication in accordance with the established procedure. However, peace treaties, alliance pacts, commercial and maritime [treaties] and all the treaties involving modifications in the national territory or affecting the rights of sovereignty, or imposing charges on the State treasury which are not provided for in the budget must be approved by the People’s Assembly.

The 2005 MoU was never ratified by Egypt’s People’s assembly, so it might possibly have been ratified by the Egyptian governement in breach of its own Constitution, raising the possibility to invoke its invalidity in accordance with article 65 of the 1969 Vienna convention. Another possibility would be to invoke the material breach clause – (article 60 of the 1969 Vienna convention) – as the official reason invoked by state-owned EGAS – Egypt’s gas company – is that EMG hadn’t paid its dues for months on end:

The contract was terminated after the Egyptian side sent notifications to EMG five times, but EMG did not commit to its financial obligations as per the contract terms, while the deadline was 31 March (Egypt Independent)

It seems however that the Egyptian government, or what passes for it, has decided on presenting the gas deal termination as a purely commercial decision, based on non-payment of dues by the Israeli buyers:

Egyptian engineer Hani Dahi, executive director of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, said on Monday that the military council and the government had no part in the decision to terminate Egypt’s agreement to provide natural gas to Israel.

According to Dahi, the decision was made following a business dispute with Israel, and has nothing to do with politics. He added that the Israeli side has not fulfilled its economic obligations, despite repeated requests.

Mohamed Shoeb, head of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, announced Sunday evening that the company will terminate its agreement to provide natural gas to Israel, after a decision had been made on Thursday due to what he termed “Israel’s repeated breaching of the agreement.” (Haaretz)

This was confirmed by Egypt’s infamous minister of international cooperation, Fayza Abulnaga:

Egypt confirmed that it is not opposed to continuing gas exports to Israel if the two countries reach a new agreement based on new prices.

The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) has notified the Israeli side of the decision, said Planning and International Cooperation Minister, Fayza Abouelnaga, in a briefing Monday after a cabinet meeting at the General Authority for Investment. She added that the Egyptian government or the Ministry of Petroleum has nothing to do with the trade contract between EGAS and the East Mediterreanean Gas Company. (Egypt Independent)

Notice by the way Abulnaga’s blatant lie (« the Egyptian government or the Ministry of Petroleum has nothing to do with the trade contract between EGAS and the East Mediterreanean Gas Company« ): she was part of the cabinet when the 2005 MoU was signed, and irrespective of whether she knew about its contents then surely these must be known to her today, and they are crystal clear: Egypt guarantees the supply of natural gas to Israel for fifteen years, i.e. until 2020.

This leads us to the second legal track: the contractual arrangements between the Egyptian gas suppliers, EMG which acts as an intermediary and the Israeli buyers. I will look into this in a following post.

(1)  The following provisions of the 1969 Vienna Convention could provide a basis for an Egyptian denunciation of the 2005 MoU:

Article 54: Termination of or withdrawal from a treaty under its provisions or by consent of the parties The termination of a treaty or the withdrawal of a party may take place: (a) in conformity with the provisions of the treaty; or (b) at any time by consent of all the parties after consultation with the other contracting States. (…)

Article 56: Denunciation of or withdrawal from a treaty containing no provision regarding termination, denunciation or withdrawal

1. A treaty which contains no provision regarding its termination and which does not provide for denunciation or withdrawal is not subject to denunciation or withdrawal unless: (a) it is established that the parties intended to admit the possibility of denunciation or withdrawal; or (b) a right of denunciation or withdrawal may be implied by the nature of the treaty.

2. A party shall give not less than twelve months’ notice of its intention to denounce or withdraw from a treaty under paragraph 1. (…)

Article 57: Suspension of the operation of a treaty under its provisions or by consent of the parties

The operation of a treaty in regard to all the parties or to a particular party may be suspended: (a) in conformity with the provisions of the treaty; or (b) at any time by consent of all the parties after consultation with the other contracting States. (…)

Article 60: Termination or suspension of the operation of a treaty as a consequence of its breach

1. A material breach of a bilateral treaty by one of the parties entitles the other to invoke the breach as a ground for terminating the treaty or suspending its operation in whole or in part.

2. A material breach of a multilateral treaty by one of the parties entitles: (a) the other parties by unanimous agreement to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either: 20 (i) in the relations between themselves and the defaulting State; or (ii) as between all the parties; (b) a party specially affected by the breach to invoke it as a ground for suspending the operation of the treaty in whole or in part in the relations between itself and the defaulting State; (c) any party other than the defaulting State to invoke the breach as a ground for suspending the operation of the treaty in whole or in part with respect to itself if the treaty is of such a character that a material breach of its provisions by one party radically changes the position of every party with respect to the further performance of its obligations under the treaty.

3. A material breach of a treaty, for the purposes of this article, consists in: (a) a repudiation of the treaty not sanctioned by the present Convention; or (b) the violation of a provision essential to the accomplishment of the object or purpose of the treaty. 4. The foregoing paragraphs are without prejudice to any provision in the treaty applicable in the event of a breach. 5. Paragraphs 1 to 3 do not apply to provisions relating to the protection of the human person contained in treaties of a humanitarian character, in particular to provisions prohibiting any form of reprisals against persons protected by such treaties.

Article 61: Supervening impossibility of performance

1. A party may invoke the impossibility of performing a treaty as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from it if the impossibility results from the permanent disappearance or destruction of an object indispensable for the execution of the treaty. If the impossibility is temporary, it may be invoked only as a ground for suspending the operation of the treaty.

2. Impossibility of performance may not be invoked by a party as a ground for terminating, withdrawing from or suspending the operation of a treaty if the impossibility is the result of a breach by that party either of an obligation under the treaty or of any other international obligation owed to any other party to the treaty.

Article 62: Fundamental change of circumstances

1. A fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of the conclusion of a treaty, and which was not foreseen by the parties, may not be invoked as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from the treaty unless: (a) the existence of those circumstances constituted an essential basis of the consent of the parties to be bound by the treaty; and 21 (b) the effect of the change is radically to transform the extent of obligations still to be performed under the treaty.

2. A fundamental change of circumstances may not be invoked as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from a treaty: (a) if the treaty establishes a boundary; or (b) if the fundamental change is the result of a breach by the party invoking it either of an obligation under the treaty or of any other international obligation owed to any other party to the treaty.

3. If, under the foregoing paragraphs, a party may invoke a fundamental change of circumstances as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from a treaty it may also invoke the change as a ground for suspending the operation of the treaty.

Article 65: Procedure to be followed with respect to invalidity, termination, withdrawal from or suspension of the operation of a treaty

1. A party which, under the provisions of the present Convention, invokes either a defect in its consent to be bound by a treaty or a ground for impeaching the validity of a treaty, terminating it, withdrawing from it or suspending its operation, must notify the other parties of its claim. The notification shall indicate the measure proposed to be taken with respect to the treaty and the reasons therefor.

2. If, after the expiry of a period which, except in cases of special urgency, shall not be less than three months after the receipt of the notification, no party has raised any objection, the party making the notification may carry out in the manner provided in article 67 the measure which it has proposed.

3. If, however, objection has been raised by any other party, the parties shall seek a solution through the means indicated in Article 33 of the Charter of the United Nations.

4. Nothing in the foregoing paragraphs shall affect the rights or obligations of the parties under any provisions in force binding the parties with regard to the settlement of disputes.

5. Without prejudice to article 45, the fact that a State has not previously made the notification prescribed in paragraph 1 shall not prevent it from making such notification in answer to another party claiming performance of the treaty or alleging its violation.

Article 66: Procedures for judicial settlement, arbitration and conciliation

If, under paragraph 3 of article 65, no solution has been reached within a period of 12 months following the date on which the objection was raised, the following procedures shall be followed: (a) any one of the parties to a dispute concerning the application or the interpretation of article 53 or 64 may, by a written application, submit it to the International Court of Justice for a decision unless the parties by common consent agree to submit the dispute to arbitration; (b) any one of the parties to a dispute concerning the application or the interpretation of any of the other articles in part V of the present Convention may set in motion the procedure specified in the Annex to the Convention by submitting a request to that effect to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Article 67: Instruments for declaring invalid, terminating, withdrawing from or suspending the operation of a treaty

1. The notification provided for under article 65, paragraph 1, must be made in writing.

2. Any act of declaring invalid, terminating, withdrawing from or suspending the operation of a treaty pursuant to the provisions of the treaty or of paragraphs 2 or 3 of article 65 shall be carried out through an instrument communicated to the other parties. If the instrument is not signed by the Head of State, Head of Government or Minister for Foreign Affairs, the representative of the State communicating it may be called upon to produce full powers.

Mona El Tahawy or native neo-orientalism

It’s probably a particularly sterile waste of time, but here are a few lines on the polemical « Why do they hate us? » article written for Foreign Policy magazine by Egyptian-born US debater Mona El Tahawy. The cover chosen for that issue of Foreign Policy – a black niqab painted on a woman’s naked body – caused even more furore than the article, a disparity which probably makes to justice to the intellectual substance of El Tahawy’s article.

Let me cite the gist of her argument:

In a crisp three-and-a-half pages, Rifaat lays out a trifecta of sex, death, and religion, a bulldozer that crushes denial and defensiveness to get at the pulsating heart of misogyny in the Middle East. There is no sugarcoating it. They don’t hate us because of our freedoms, as the tired, post-9/11 American cliché had it. We have no freedoms because they hate us, as this Arab woman so powerfully says.

Yes: They hate us. It must be said. (…) An entire political and economic system — one that treats half of humanity like animals — must be destroyed along with the other more obvious tyrannies choking off the region from its future. Until the rage shifts from the oppressors in our presidential palaces to the oppressors on our streets and in our homes, our revolution has not even begun. (…)

SO WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

First we stop pretending. Call out the hate for what it is. Resist cultural relativism and know that even in countries undergoing revolutions and uprisings, women will remain the cheapest bargaining chips. You — the outside world — will be told that it’s our « culture » and « religion » to do X, Y, or Z to women. Understand that whoever deemed it as such was never a woman. The Arab uprisings may have been sparked by an Arab man — Mohamed Bouazizi, the Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire in desperation — but they will be finished by Arab women.

It’s of course not the need to dramatically improve the condition of women in the Arab world in order to achieve a long overdue parity  that is at fault – on the contrary, witness the recent statement by Saudi Arabia’s grand mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz al Sheikh according to which girls are ripe for marriage at 12. It’s rather the tone and lexical and discursive resources which El Tahawy taps into: essentialism, reduction of social and political phenomena to simple psychological factors (fear, hate), and even more so the lumping together of all men into a vague and threatening « they » – the kind of manicheism she resented when it came to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, but I suppose one has to distinguish between good manicheism and bad manicheism. That piece could have been written by David Pryce-Jones, Fouad Ajami or the staggeringly inane Lee Smith, a US journalist who wrote a 2010 book called « The strong horse » aiming to show that Arabs only understood and bowed to force and violence – unfortunately for him, 2011 came after 2010.

An American journalist writing exclusively for European, US and Israeli media outlets, Mona El Tahawy is not interested in helping Middle Eastern activists to bring about the legislative and social changes required, or to identify the practical ways this might be achieved. No easy clues here: there’s only hate to confront. How does one confront hate – by drone attacks, invasion or forced conversion? She does not say. More importantly still, Arab men and women are not really her main target – her piece is written in the tone of a native informer bringing the White (Wo)Man her exclusive insights about the twisted minds of her fellow natives. That article is more a career move, à la Irshad Manji or Ayaan Hirsi Ali (but without the latter’s islamophobia), than a sincere contribution to a fight for equality that is both morally necessary and socially unavoidable, as Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd have shown.

As often with these polemical mainstream media pieces, the response to them has been both massive and impressive – even by Mona El Tahawy’s own standards – remember, she had the gall to write, during the 2009 war on Gaza, that she preferred « sitting on the fence » when asked about her reactions to Israel’s onslaught on Gaza’s Palestinian population (her reaction then? « Israel is the opium of the people« ). The negative reaction against Mona El Tahawy has been massive – especially from those same Arab women on whose behalf El Tahawy writes. Here’s a short list – a full run-down is available here – but the following ones are those that caught my attention.

First, Us and Them: On Helpless Women and Orientalist Imagery by Roqayah Chamseddine. She correctly asks:

There are also unanswered questions:

1. Why not publish the article in Arabic, therein engaging with the intended audience more directly?
2. Why choose Foreign Policy as the platform and not a media outlet which would direct her piece at those she addresses?
3. Why is there so much orientalist imagery present? If she was not aware that these photographs would be used, did she take it up with Foreign Policy after realizing this?

Then Nahed El Tantawy’s « I don’t really think they hate us!« :

And before I go any further, I realize of course that I will be accused by some (which already happened on the FP comments sections) that I am in denial and that I refuse to air my dirty linen in public. Well, I’m NOT in denial; I am well aware that Arab women have their fair share of problems. But I refuse to be lumped into this monolithic group of oppressed, abused and hated victims. Arab women’s problems are not the same across the board. Even within one country like Egypt, what I see as a problem, might not be the most pressing issue for the woman next door. So, I refuse to have Eltahawy talk on my behalf as if she is the expert who can accurately identify my plight.

Foreign Policy (FP), anticipating  the response to El Tahawy’s piece, published « Debating the war on women » (you have to admire this American tendency to transform all social problems – poverty,drugs, terrorism – into a war to be embarked upon) – Egyptian academic Leila Ahmed takes El Tahawy to task for misinterpreting the Alifa Rifaat novel that she cites in her article, and urges on FP to invite Egyptian activist Asma Mahfouz and Yemeni Nobel Peace Prize winner Tawakkol Karman to express their views on the the gender issue – it is indeed quite stunning that FP couldn’t get Tawakkol Karman’s to share her views. Female Muslim Brotherhood activist Sondos Asem’s critical views should also be mentioned.

Tom Dale wrote the following piece – « Hatred and misogyny in the Middle East, a response to Mona el Tahawy » – in Open Democracy:

Firstly, Mona identifies hatred – pure, transhistorical, misogynistic hatred – as the cause of women’s oppression in the Arab world. This hatred itself, el Tahawy explains in terms of men’s desire to control women’s sexuality. Even if this explanation wasn’t largely circular, which it arguably is, hatred is a woefully insufficient lens through which to understand the problem. Why is sexism stronger in some places and times than others? Why does it take specific forms? And aren’t there some things about women’s oppression which can’t be explained by hatred, even as there are things that can?

Secondly, because the article lacks a coherent explanation for the misogynistic practices it identifies, it also lacks the capacity to suggest effective solutions. Instead we get the slogan “call out the hate for what it is.” As if repeatedly pointing out the psychological form of the worst misogyny could bring down the walls of the patriarchal Jericho.

Thirdly, the article singles out ‘Arab societies’ for criticism. Whilst, relative to Sub-Saharan, Asian, or Latin American societies, Arab nations are disproportionately grouped at the bottom of the 2011 Global Gender Gap Report ↑ (based on a list of nations which is far from comprehensive, leaving out Afghanistan and Somalia for instance), this is no excuse for not building an analysis which integrates other offenders: half of the bottom six are not Arab. As an Arab woman herself, el Tahawy undoubtedly does not intend to essentialise Arab societies, but by treating the problems she describes as specifically Arab ones, and lacking in historical origins or non-Arab equivalents, she will unavoidably be perceived to have done so.

Dale has well-informed comments to make on Female Genital Mutilation, one of the main arguments in El Tahawy’s article:

Let’s take a look at one of the issues which el Tahawy identifies, Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in Egypt. The practice has its roots in Africa, and is not practiced in the Levant or Gulf, except in isolated pockets. It is not mandated by Islam, although it is widely believed ↑ to be. The re is strong evidence ↑ that local women’s economic and social empowerment is the best strategy for fighting FGM, and that denunciations on a national level are relatively ineffective. Better educated parents are less likely to endorse FGM, and women ↑ are typically the main organisers of FGM. So there it is. It isn’t ‘hate’, but a cocktail of economic factors, poor education, and social disempowerment against a particular – but not particularly Arab – background, which causes FGM. The women who take their daughters to the excisors do not hate their daughters, and telling them that they do is not going to change anything for the better.

Then we have Kuwaiti Beidoon activist Mona Kareem and her « ‘Why Do They Hate Us?’ A Blogger’s Response« :

Eltahawy argues against Arab claims that Jews or Israelis hate us, but she uses the same logic when she puts Arab men under an umbrella of a single emotion: hate.

What should be considered is that we live in patriarchal societies, and the foundations of Middle East-based monotheistic religious texts are established on this patriarchy. Eltahawy’s claim not only degrades Arab culture in general but also patronizes Arab men and women by making the whole struggle for gender equality a conflict between the two sexes based on personal emotions.

Another problem I have with the general speech of “Arab feminism” is the term in itself. I really dislike seeing more than 20 different cultures put under one roof. Eltahawy is not a Pan-Arabist, I am assuming, yet she falls for this very common oriental division imposed by the media and others. Anyone knows how radically divergent the “Arab World” is: the North-African Arab culture is a far different culture from that of the Arabian Gulf.

Her concluding remarks are a strong refutation of El Tahawy’s arguments:

Last point: I think that Eltahawy has had many chances to present her thoughts on women’s rights. If western publications, including Foreign Policy, are interested in focusing a spotlight on so-called “Arab feminism,” then similar chances should be given to other Arab women. A variety of media outlets have included the stories of different women from the Arab world after the uprising, yet they rarely give them chances to speak about their experiences and to express their opinions.
Women like Manal Al-Sharif, Rasha Azab and Samira Ibrahim are not less “feminist” than other prominent female figures in the world. The veiled Bahraini protester Zainab Alkhawaja, for example, can speak well of the women’s struggle as she protests alone in the street and gets arrested for the sake of her detained father. He is Abdulhadi Al-Khawaja, the prominent Bahraini-Danish human rights activists who has been on a hunger strike in prison for 76 days. He, I am sure, does not hate her.

Moroccan blogger Samia Errazzouki is as dismissive in « Dear Mona Eltahawy, You Do Not Represent “Us”« :

Foreign Policy’s decision to choose this photograph of a naked woman with a body-painted niqab embodies this problematic narrative in more ways than one:

  1. This inherent sexualization of the niqab through the pose and exposure of the female form revives the classic “harem” literature and art, presenting the Arab and/or Muslim woman as “exotic” and “mysterious,” but still an object: An object lacking the agency to define herself, thus defined by others.
  2. All of the women close to me who wear the niqab do so for different reasons. One friend only wears the niqab when she attends protests because she feels comfortable in it. Another friend has chosen to wear the niqab, against the will of her family since she was 14. The representation of the niqab as splattered body paint on a naked woman degrades the decision of women who wear the niqab as a choice.
  3. The feature of an Arab woman’s article on the front cover does not justify the editorial choice to use the image. Mona Eltahawy was notoriously owned during a debate over the niqab ban in France, where she took the position in favor of the ban. Her stance on the niqab is convenient to the narrative being perpetuated by the problematic image.

Zeinobia (« US , them and breaking the stereotype !!« ) invokes the Arab heroines of 2011 as witnesses for the prosecution:

I am fed up as Egyptian Arab Muslim African woman of that stereotype Westerners and orientalists put me in that I am being oppressed and needed to be saved as soon as possible by the Western values , you know the White man complex !! I am fed up of that stereotype at the time the Egyptian and Arab women like Samira Ibrahim , Zeinab El Khawja , Tawakel Karman, Bothiana Kamel , Noha El Zeiny made history for real in 2011 and 2012 !!?

The women who wear Niqab in Bahrain and Yemen made the dream of freedom possible , these are the same women insulted in the disgusting photos of FP.

Al Jazeera’s journalist Dima Khatib sided with El Tahawy’s critics (« Love, Not Hatred, Dear Mona !« ):

I was attracted to the opening of your article. Your style is interesting and you do poke the issues, and our issues are one, Mona. There’s no doubt that the facts in your article are accurate, that the problems highlighted are real, and that the suffering you write of is experienced by Arab women, even if they are not always aware of it. My anger faded as I read, slowly…until I reached the section where you explain “The Arab men’s hatred toward women”. Hatred?

Let’s see. In our Arab society, does the son hate his mother? The brother his sister? The father his daughter? And the husband hates his wife, and the lover his beloved? And the male colleague hates his female colleague, and the male friend his female friend, and the male neighbor his female neighbor? I don’t think our culture teaches us to hate women. In fact, mothers are sacred, grandmothers are sacred, aunts are treasured, and so are female cousins.

Jadaliyya has a comprehensive critique of El Tahawy in « Let’s talk about sex« :

We would suggest, as many have, that oppression is about men and women. The fate of women in the Arab world cannot be extracted from the fate of men in the Arab world, and vice versa. El Tahawy’s article conjures an elaborate battle of the sexes where men and women are on opposing teams, rather than understanding that together men and women must fight patriarchal systems in addition to exploitative practices of capitalism, authoritarianism, colonialism, liberalism, religion, and/or secularism. (…)

One would have to also critically and historically engage how women’s movements have been implicated in the policies and longevity of authoritarianism. After all, the two countries where women enjoyed the broadest scope of personal status law were Tunisia and Egypt, before the recent revolutions. Indeed, of all the countries of the Arab world, it was only in Tunisia and Egypt that a woman could pass her citizenship on to her children if she was married to a foreigner. (In Egypt there was a small qualification for women married to that other other, the Palestinian; post-revolutionary Egypt has, at least in law if not in practice, done away with this exception).

How can we account for these legal achievements under authoritarian regimes?

Not to forget Egyptian Palestine activist Sarah Hawas on Ikhras « Mona el Tahawy and the Transnational Fulul al Nidham« :

In recent exchanges on Twitter, Mona el Tahawy refused to respond to myriad demands for a statement of her position on the Palestinian-led global BDS movement against Israel. She resorted, instead, to making pre-emptive defensive accusations of libel and defamation, name-calling, and multiple other condescending insinuations of superiority. She went as far as to play the authenticity card and question the relevance of a non-Egyptian, Lebanese activist – namely, @LeilZahra – who has been at the heart of the uprising throughout the seven months – by dismissing his input as “conformist” to “make up for the fact that he wasn’t Egyptian”. This kind of discourse dangerously echoes General Hassan al-Roueiny of the ruling SCAF and his denigration of Egyptian-Palestinian poet Tamim al Barghouthi’s criticism of Egyptian foreign policy, on account of Tamim’s having a “weird accent” and “features that are not very Egyptian”.

And lastly, the only ironic response to Mona el Tahawy – Colonial Feminist‘s « Dear Mona Eltahawy« :

Mona, may you continue in your fight for media slots and nods of acceptance from mainstream media outlets, despite a slew of Arab women from all walks of life refuting your oversimplification of our plight. We pray that you continue to close your ears and eyes to logical rebuttals of your articles, as you pursue complete dominion over our voices, a pursuit done only out of the kindness of your own heart and on our behalf.

Thank you dearest Mona. We remain forever silently yours, awaiting your call for us to advance in the war against the barbaric men of the Middle East. We raise our chains in thanks and pray that one day we will meet in a free Middle East, where you will be hailed as our deliverer.

Some further reading, unrelated to Mone El Tahawy’s piece:

Du danger de montrer son caleçon Superman en public (ou de diffuser un dessin animé)

Le Maroc n’a pas le monopole des poursuites pénales contre des artistes – je pense à celles contre rappeur L7aqed bien sûr – dans le monde – La Rumeur en France en sait quelque chose, qui sort de huit années d’une guérilla juridique initiée par Sarkozy, et ce sans compter les poursuites contre des citoyens ordinaires – en Jordanie, six citoyens sont ainsi poursuivis pour avoir tiré la langue au Roi, ce que Yves Gonzalez-Quijano (Culture et politique arabes, un des meilleurs blogs sur le monde arabe toutes langues confondues) appelle fort à propos « crime de lèche-majesté« . Mais celles lancées au Liban contre le duo comique Rawya el-Chab et Edmund Hedded valent leur pesant de taboulé.

Leur crime? Lors d’une collecte de fonds caritative pour les enfants souffrant de maladies cardiaques, qui a lieu sous la forme d’un « man auction » (vente aux enchères lors desquelles un homme propose au plus offrant soit un service particulier – plombier, électricien, etc – ou le plus souvent un strip-tease, la somme offerte étant généralement reversée à une oeuvre caritative), Edmund Hedded a soulevé son jeans pour montrer le haut de son caleçon Superman qu’il portait ce jour-là. Que n’avait-il pas fait-là:

Rawya el Chab et Edmund Hedded, ce dernier montrant le haut de son caleçon Superman lors d'une vente aux enchères.

L’article est tombé entre les mains d’un « vieux ». Un « responsable » que le rapport du spectacle a « révolté ». Une « révolte » accentuée par le fait qu’une photo montrant Edmund Hedded, en pleine représentation, sur scène, en train d’exhiber quelques petits centimètres carrés de son caleçon marqué du sigle de Superman, circulait déjà.

Décidé à ne pas laisser passer la chose, ce « responsable », dont Edmund Hedded ne connaît pas l’identité, a informé les autorités judiciaires libanaises.

« Rawya el-Chab (qui animait la vente aux enchères) et moi-même avons été convoqués et interrogés au commissariat chargé de l’instruction disciplinaire. Les autorités elles-mêmes étaient perplexes quant au motif de notre convocation et nous ont rassurés à plusieurs reprises que nous n’allions pas être sanctionnés« , indique le jeune comédien, qui lui même peine encore, aujourd’hui, à masquer sa perplexité.

Suite à cet interrogatoire, Edmund Hedded affirme avoir contacté plusieurs ministres et responsables qui ont également minimisé l’affaire qu’ils ont qualifiée de « ridicule« . Un ministre a même confié au jeune comédien avoir été, lui-même, déjà « vendu aux enchères pour un rendez-vous romantique, il y a 30 ans« .

L’affaire aurait également été évoquée par le président de la République Michel Sleimane lors d’une des séances du Conseil des ministres au palais présidentiel…

Autant dire que le caleçon d’Edmond a fait le tour du Liban.

D’où la grosse et mauvaise surprise d’Edmund à l’énoncé du jugement, le 30 novembre 2011 : « Un mois de prison et 200.000 livres libanaises d’amende pour un +stand-up comedy show+ socialement hors de l’ordinaire et pour discours extrêmement vulgaire ainsi que l’exposition du caleçon d’Edmund Hedded« .

Edmund Hedded et Rawya el-Chab sont punis « au nom du peuple libanais et conformément à l’article 532 du code pénal » pour « humour, terminologie et gestes indécents sur scène« .

On ne badine avec la décence dans un pays où tant de meurtres et massacres sont restés impunis, et où des chefs de milice sont chefs de partis. Récemment, deux Libanais avaient été arrétés – puis libérés – pour avoir écrit des graffitis favorables à la révolte syrienne.

On aurait bien sûr tort d’incriminer spécifiquement le Liban: on a bien vu au Maroc il y a plusieurs années de cela un ingénieur condamné à trois années de prison ferme (avant d’être grâcié) pour avoir créé une page Facebook au nom du prince Moulay Rachid (sans aucun propos critique ou injurieux d’ailleurs). En Tunisie, c’est la projection télévisée du film animé Persepolis fondé sur l’album de bandes dessinées du même nom de Marjane Satrapi qui vaut à Nabil Karoui, PDG de la chaîne privée Nessma TV un procès pénal pour lors duquel il encourt trois années de prison ferme pour « atteinte aux valeurs du sacré, atteintes aux bonnes mœurs et troubles à l’ordre public« . Des émeutes violentes, initiées par des salafistes, avaient suivi la projection du film, et une pétition regroupant plus de 100.000 signatures avait éxigé des poursuites contre Nessma TV. L’intéressé est un improbable héros de la liberté d’expression – il a des portraits de Berlusconi (il en fut un partenaire d’affaires) dans son bureau, sa chaîne fut créée lors de la dictature de Benali, dont il chantait alors les louanges, et il a demandé pardon pour la diffusion du film animé, où une séquence présentait Dieu sous les traits d’un homme, chose antinomique avec le dogme musulman.

Et c’est l’Egypte qui est en passe de décrocher le pompon, puisque une série d’actions en justice ont été initiées par des avocats islamistes – une véritable engeance en Egypte, si on veut bien se rappeler que certains d’entre eux avaient par le biais d’une procédure de hisba obtenu en 1995 que le défunt chercheur en sciences islamiques Nasr abu Zayd soit déclaré apostat et divorcé de force de son épouse – contre le comédien et acteur le plus célèbre du monde arabe, Adel Imam. Deux procédures distinctes sont apparemment en cours, mais initiées par le même avocat islamiste – Adel Imam a ainsi été condamné en appel à 3 mois de prison ferme pour injure à l’islam, tandis qu’il a ce jeudi été acquitté en première instance dans une autre affaire du même type. Tête de turc des islamistes, et proche de l’ancien président Hosni Moubarak, Adel Imam illustre le pouvoir politique nouveau des islamistes, qui dominent de manière écrasante l’Assemblée du peuple égyptienne – et il illustre le risque d’avoir renversé un régime dictatorial pour finalement ne pas obtenir de réel changement en matière de liberté d’expression, comme le souligne Amnesty International. Comme le dit un membre du collectif de défense de Nabil Karoui:

« Ceux qui accusent les autres d’hérésie, qui décident qui est un bon musulman ou pas, utilisent les mêmes stratagèmes de contrôle des médias que sous Ben Ali », abonde Naceur Laouini. (écrans.fr)

On voit les limites de la révolte arabe dans les pays où elle a abouti à la chute de la dictature: l’outrage au dictateur est de plus en remplacé par l’outrage aux valeurs religieuses ou nationales; la chute de la dictature n’implique pas nécessairement l’avénement de la démocratie. Ce dilemme n’est pas propre aux pays arabes, et les réactions négatives importantes contre ces procès liberticides sont un signe d’espoir – même le parti Ennahda avait pris ses distances avec les poursuites pénales contre Karoui. Dans les pays où cette révolte n’a pas entamé les régimes autoritaires ou semi-autoritaires en place – Maroc et Jordanie notamment – c’est l’accusation de lèse-majesté qui demeure l’accusation suprême.

Dans les deux cas, des lois pénales évasives  – à dessein – permettent à des magistrats médiocres ou soumis de condamner en vertu des souhaits supposés du pouvoir ou de l’opinion, et non en vertu de la lettre et de l’esprit des lois. Encore une fois, les pays arabes n’ont pas le monopole de ces défauts-là: chaque année, la Cour européenne des droits de l’homme condamne des Etats membres du Conseil de l’Europe pour violation de l’article 10 de la Convention européennne des droits de l’homme relative à la liberté d’expression (de 1959 à 2009, 392 violations concernant 36 des 47 Etats membres ont fait l’objet de décision de la Cour – voir ce guide publié par la Cour pour une présentation de la jurisprudence pertinente en matière de liberté d’expression). La différence est cependant que la majorité des Etats membres du Conseil de l’Europe est constituée d’Etats de droit où la justice freine – tant bien que mal – les dérives du pouvoir; quand la justice marocaine, tunisienne ou égyptienne prendra une décision allant à l’encontre de la volonté du pouvoir politique ou d’une majorité de l’opinion publique sur un dossier important, ce jour-là Nabil Karoui, Adel Imam, Edmund el Hedded et Rawya el Chab pourront sans doute s’exprimer artistiquement en paix…

«Je suis sûr qu’une nouvelle fois l’Algérie nous surprendra…»

El Watan rendant certains de ses articles payants, voici l’entretien que ce quotidien algérien a mené avec Alain Gresh du Monde diplomatique, même s’il n’y parle pas du Maroc:

Alain Gresh. Journaliste, directeur adjoint du Monde Diplomatique

«Je suis sûr qu’une nouvelle fois l’Algérie nous surprendra…»

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le 18.04.12 | 10h00 8 réactions

   

Journaliste, directeur adjoint du Monde Diplomatique, spécialiste du Monde arabe et auteur de nombreux ouvrages sur les problèmes du Moyen-Orient, Alain Gresh nous livre ses réflexions sur les révoltes populaires qui secouent actuellement cette région.

-Le Monde arabe connaît-il un vrai «printemps» ?

On peut discuter de l’expression. On a parlé aussi de révolte, de révolution… L’important est ailleurs : il s’agit d’un mouvement qui a touché l’ensemble du Monde arabe, sans exception, de manière plus ou moins intense, avec partout des manifestations y compris en Arabie Saoudite, dont on n’a pas beaucoup parlé. Même s’il y a des différences d’un pays à l’autre, une même volonté anime ces révoltes qui ont en commun trois caractéristiques :
1. La volonté d’en finir avec l’autoritarisme et la dictature, mais pas seulement au sens politique. Avant tout au sens d’arbitraire. C’est ce que disent les gens quand ils parlent de karama – de dignité. Ils veulent vivre dans une société où ils ne sont pas soumis à l’arbitraire du fonctionnaire qui les envoie «promener», du policier qui les maltraite ou les frappe, une société où tous les agents de l’Etat respectent les citoyens. Cela va bien au-delà d’une demande de démocratie.
2. La volonté d’en finir avec l’accaparement des richesses par une minorité, avec une libéralisation économique imposée par l’Union européenne, qui ne profite qu’à la clique au pouvoir et accroît la paupérisation de la population.
3. La volonté d’en finir avec un patriarcat oppressant qui marginalise une jeunesse instruite, mieux formée que ses parents et qui ne trouve pas de travail.

Révolte contre l’arbitraire, contre l’injustice sociale, contre la marginalisation de la jeunesse : ces trois facteurs sont communs à tous les soulèvements qui secouent le Monde arabe.
L’existence d’un mouvement global se trouve confirmée par la réaction des pouvoirs. Partout, parfois même avant toute manifestation, on constate une double attitude des dirigeants : la répression, évidemment, et des largesses d’ordre économique et social. En Arabie Saoudite, en Algérie, des centaines de milliards ont été débloqués et des réformes, plus ou moins réelles, ont été promises, ce qui est une façon de reconnaître que la situation, pour la plupart des citoyens, était absolument insupportable.

-Que pensez-vous de l’attitude des pays occidentaux à l’égard de ces révoltes ? Certains prétendent qu’en sous-main, ils les auraient déclenchées…

Je récuse absolument l’idée d’une manipulation par l’étranger. Ce sont des mouvements autochtones, nationaux, contre des régimes soutenus par les Occidentaux. Jusqu’au dernier moment, la France a soutenu Ben Ali ; jusqu’à la dernière minute, la France et les Etats-Unis ont soutenu Moubarak. Pourquoi auraient-ils en même temps fomenté des révoltes ? L’imaginer est absurde  et je ne partage évidemment pas cette vision.

Cela dit, il est évident qu’une contre-révolution s’organise ; une contre-révolution interne, dirigée sur le plan régional par l’Arabie Saoudite, et une contre-révolution externe conduite par la France et les Etats-Unis qui essaient de limiter au maximum les changements. Non, les Occidentaux n’ont rien déclenché, mais ils s’efforcent d’entraver et même de briser ces mouvements.
Il est une autre vision, naïve celle-là, que je ne partage pas. Ce n’est évidemment pas le désir de voir s’installer en Syrie un gouvernement démocratique qui pousse l’Arabie Saoudite et les Etats-Unis à condamner le régime de Bachar Al Assad.
Il y a en réalité une tentative de retour en force de la contre-révolution à la fois à l’intérieur de ces pays, comme on le voit en Egypte où les forces pro-Moubarak n’ont pas disparu, et à l’extérieur, avec l’appui de l’Arabie Saoudite, des pays du Golfe et des Etats-Unis.
La façon dont l’Arabie Saoudite utilise la carte de la solidarité sunnite pour lutter contre le régime syrien et accentuer des clivages anciens est très dangereuse : elle pourrait faire dévier les mouvements arabes vers des types d’affrontements confessionnels.

-Quel rôle jouent les islamistes dans ces révoltes ?

Je n’aime pas le terme islamisme. Je ne pense pas qu’on puisse désigner d’un même vocable le Hamas, le Hezbollah, Al Qaîda, les Frères musulmans, mais il est évident que s’il y avait des élections libres dans le Monde arabe, globalement, les forces issues du mouvement des Frères musulmans auraient une majorité, relative comme en Tunisie, absolue comme en Egypte.
Toutes ces forces sont conservatrices sur le plan social et néolibérales sur le plan économique, mais en même temps, elles ont changé, non seulement parce qu’elles font allégeance, de façon formelle ou non, à la démocratie, mais parce que le mouvement qui s’est développé dans les pays arabes est un mouvement en faveur de la démocratie, du multipartisme, y compris chez ceux qui ont voté pour Ennahda.

Des contradictions internes évidentes agitent ces mouvements, et c’est la première fois qu’ils sont confrontés au gouvernement. Avant, il était facile de dire «l’islam est la solution à tous nos problèmes», mais ce discours ne tient pas quand on est au gouvernement. Bien sûr, ils sont porteurs de projets inquiétants dans le domaine du droit, du statut de la femme, et ils vont en partie en jouer, car c’est le seul domaine – le domaine des mœurs et du statut personnel –où ils peuvent continuer à tenir le même discours. Mais même là, ils se heurtent à de la contestation, on le voit bien en Tunisie où les salafistes font de la surenchère, ce qui suscite un mouvement de révolte des femmes. Mais il ne faut pas négliger le fait que toutes ces sociétés sont très conservatrices, comme le montrent les élections, ce n’est pas imposé de l’extérieur, c’est une réalité. Les pouvoirs en place ont toujours prétendu qu’ils n’étaient pas intégristes, mais ils ont créé les conditions pour que l’intégrisme se développe. Ce n’est pas vrai qu’ils ont lutté contre les islamistes, ni en Tunisie ni en Egypte. En Egypte, ils ont lutté partiellement contre les Frères musulmans, tout en islamisant totalement la société. Maintenant, le débat devient public, et il vaut mieux qu’il se pose dans des luttes politiques qu’autrement.

Certains objectent qu’il y a un risque et citent l’exemple de l’Iran. Or, ce qui se passe dans le Monde arabe aujourd’hui n’est pas une révolution comme celle qui a eu lieu en Iran. A cette époque, le discours de l’islam radical était relativement populaire et apparaissait comme une alternative. Mais après l’échec du modèle iranien et des insurrections armées en Algérie, l’aspiration à un islamisme de type radical, conservateur, n’a pas de soutien de masse suffisant pour créer une situation irréversible ni en Tunisie ni en Egypte, où l’armée est d’ailleurs beaucoup plus dangereuse que les Frères musulmans. Les Frères musulmans sont très conservateurs, mais ils sont profondément divisés, les jeunes générations aspirent à l’antitotalitarisme. Le mouvement est encore contrôlé par des vieux, mais ils ne sont plus à l’abri.

-Etes-vous optimiste pour le proche avenir de la Tunisie ?

Beaucoup plus que pour l’Egypte. L’armée n’a pas le même poids. C’est inquiétant de voir que les salafistes tenter de s’imposer. Mais ils ne sont pas majoritaires, la majorité des citoyens ne les suit pas et la plupart sont convaincus que le débat politique est la meilleure réponse aux problèmes de l’heure.Les conservateurs ont un discours bien rodé sur les mœurs, mais ils n’en ont aucun quand il s’agit du chômage, de la corruption, du devenir des jeunes, qui sont des problèmes prioritaires. C’est sur eux qu’il faut porter le débat. Les conservateurs n’ont aucune réponse à ces problèmes, or c’est là-dessus que les citoyens les jugeront.

-Quel regard portez-vous sur l’Algérie ?

Quoi qu’en disent certains, l’indépendance est une étape décisive, positive dans l’histoire de l’Algérie. Elle a permis le développement d’un Etat, la généralisation de l’instruction, la création d’un système de santé. Je récuse toute forme de nostalgie. Mais il est vrai qu’il y a eu, comme dans le reste du Monde arabe, une stagnation sociale, économique, politique – une confiscation de la Révolution qui est en train d’être remise en cause.

-Qu’il n’y ait pas eu de grand mouvement protestataire ne signifie pas que la situation soit fondamentalement différente. N’oublions pas que la révolte arabe a commencé en janvier 2011 dans les grandes villes d’Algérie presque en même temps qu’en Tunisie…

Le mouvement avait été national, n’épargnant aucune région d’Alger à Annaba. Les autorités sont parvenues in extremis à contenir les manifestations et ont lâché du lest. Mais les raisons de la révolte subsistent.  Comme dans l’ensemble du Monde arabe, les Algériens souffrent de l’autoritarisme et de l’arbitraire, de l’injustice sociale et du délaissement d’une jeunesse dont une partie importante ne rêve que d’émigrer.
Je crois qu’il y aura un printemps algérien, peut-être sous des formes différentes – les «années noires» pèsent beaucoup – mais l’Algérie ne restera pas à l’écart du grand mouvement d’émancipation qui secoue le Monde arabe. Je suis sûr qu’une nouvelle fois elle nous surprendra, qu’elle renouera avec cet élan qui, il y a cinquante ans, faisait l’admiration du monde et qu’elle insufflera un espoir nouveau non seulement dans tout le Maghreb, mais aussi sur l’autre rive de la Méditerranée.

Maurice Tarik Maschino

Remarques:

– Gresh a absolument raison sur les difficultés auxquelles seront très rapidement confrontés les islamistes au pouvoir – en Tunisie, au Maroc en Egypte et peut-être bientôt en Algérie: les questions de société – hijab, alcool, festivals, bikini et tutti quanti – peuvent animer et choquer, ce ne sont pas elles qui feront le succès à terme des islamistes – tout comme leurs prédecesseurs, c’est sur l’emploi, le pouvoir d’achat, l’accès aux services publics voire la criminalité qu’ils feront la différence, comme l’AKP.

– je ne partage pas sa remarque sur « une contre-révolution externe conduite par la France et les Etats-Unis »  – les positions de ces deux pays ont été réactives, même celle de la France sur la Libye, qui a pris position – avec le Royaume-Uni – pour l’intervention militaire en Libye par réaction à son fiasco tunisien, et en réaction au soulèvement d’une partie de la population libyenne.

– sur l’Algérie, il faudrait être fou pour faire des prédictions. Il s’agit d’un Etat rentier, ce qu’on oublie trop souvent, et l’exception libyenne ne fournit aucune indication – le pouvoir algérien n’est pas celui d’une personne, c’est celui d’une institution, l’armée, et de ses dirigeants. Contrairement à la Tunisie, à la Syrie ou à l’Egypte, il n’y a pas de figure unique pouvant rassembler contre elle le peuple algérien, vacciné durablement contre la tentation révolutionnaire par la guerre civile des années 1990. S’il est probable que les choses changeront bien un jour, la simple lecture de l’histoire politique algérienne depuis 1988 devrait inciter à de la prudence.

Pourquoi des villageois égyptiens votent-ils pour des islamistes?

L’approche de l’islamisme politique est tantôt marquée par une spéculation métaphysique, tantôt par l’imprécation éditorialiste, ou encore par une enfilade de poncifs et lieux communs. L’islamisme est perçu comme un phénomène désincarné, idéologique, philosophique, émotif (« la haine », « le fanatisme ») insusceptible d’explication rationnelle ou sociologique. D’où l’intérêt de lire cet article – « Who do Egypt’s villagers vote for? And why? » – d’une anthropologue égyptienne à Cambridge, Yasmina Moataz Ahmed.

Why do rural dwellers vote for Islamic parties? Do they vote through coercion or incentives? Do they differentiate between different religious groups — in that case the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis? Or do they just follow what their sheikhs dictate to them prior to the elections, or what people tell them in front of the electoral ballots? How come a few-months-old political party (Nour) gained half the seats acquired by the 80-year-old Brotherhood?

What I aim to present here, on the basis of ethnographic data from the 2011-2012 parliamentary elections in a village in Fayoum governorate, are some answers to these questions, in order to understand how Egypt’s rural dwellers make political choices.

My overall argument is that when people choose to vote for an Islamic political party, they base their positions on a complex web of relations with power, authority and indeed, religiosity. I highlight some of the common arguments that my interlocutors articulated when they compared between the Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafi Nour Party — the only two visible groups in the village.

Ainsi, contrairement à l’idée reçue selon laquelle le FJP (parti des Frères musulmans) serait plus modéré que les salafistes de Hizb al Nour, les villageois du côté de Fayoum (pas loin du Caire) sont d’un avis contraire:

Despite the common perception that Salafis are strict followers of Sharia compared to the Muslim Brotherhood, many of my research participants often talked about Salafis as religiously less strict than the Ikhwan. From the work of Ikwani leaders in the village, the villagers have noticed the strict hierarchy that informs the work of the Brotherhood members on the ground. In other words, the villagers understood the Brotherhood’s adherence to the dictates of the Guidance Bureau, or the Murshid, as an orthodoxy that made the Brotherhood stricter than the Salafis. They often said to me: “How come Ikhwan grassroot leaders all agree on the same things?” An incident that they often referred to is the insistence of Muslim Brotherhood members to force people to pray outside of a mosque, not build by the Brotherhood, during the Eid al-Fitr prayer last September.

Salafis, on the other hand, are seen as religiously flexible. “Aren’t we all Salafis?” many Nour supporters often repeated to me. For them, Salafis represent a religious understanding that seeks to closely follow the times of the Prophet and his followers — the Prophet was married to a Coptic woman, his neighbors were Jews, he dealt with each situation on a case-by-case basis, hence the perception that Salafis are, believe it or not, lenient. This was reflected on the ground; Salafis, at least in the village where I worked, appear to be more laid-back compared to the Ikhwan, and hence, more sensitive and open to the local context.

Et encore une fois, lors de ce printemps arabe marqué au moins autant par la question sociale que par le rejet de la dictature, la question de classe est présente, et les salfistes paraissent moins lointains, socialement parlant, que les Ikhwan:

Class was also a factor that often worked against the Brotherhood’s candidates. Due to being the most educated cluster, Ikhwani leaders are strongly present in professional occupations in village-level bureaucracies; they are the teachers, the lawyers, the engineers, and more importantly the personnel of the most funded NGO: Al-Jam’eya al-Shar’eya. Ikhwan leaders often use their positions, particularly in the NGO, to promote the Freedom and Justice party through coercing the poorest of the village into long-term charity and debt relations; they fund kidney dialysis operations, pay monthly stipends for orphan children, and distribute money and goods for ad-hoc lists that they prepare once they get orders from their leaders in Cairo.

Although these services seem necessary in the absence of a state-service provider, many rural dwellers (even ones who receive support from the NGO) see this relationship of indebtedness to the NGO as unhealthy. This informs why many villagers are weary of voting for the Ikhwan’s party. “We need a government that recognizes our rights as citizens, not as recipients of aid! We need people that would help us get our stolen rights. If the Muslim Brotherhood come to power, they will be both the mediators and the government.”

Although Salafis undertake charity activities, their work is more discrete, and their visible focus is on preaching (da’wa), which is often seen as an apolitical practice that does not particularly aim to recruit voters.

S’agissant d’une zone rurale, la question de classe passe aussi par la question de la propriété et de la terre: les Ikhwan paraissent aux électeurs ruraux comme acquis à la libéralisation de la politique foncière lancée par le régime de Moubarak dans les années 90.

Finally, agrarian policies were implicitly a matter of concern for many of my interlocutors prior to the elections. The Brotherhood members were great supporters of the liberalization of the agrarian sector promoted by Mubarak, particularly Law 92 in the year 1996, which led one million farmers to lose secure tenancy and their main source of food security. After the revolution, many farmers tried to re-acquire some rights that they had lost with the liberalization policy. They started to protest the law through going on strikes in front of government offices in Fayoum, and later in front of Parliament in Cairo. The main Brotherhood MP from the village promised to work on their file once he won. This not only did not happen, but also the MP turned his back on them when he saw them protesting in front of Parliament. This, for them, was a sign of great deception. Again, here, Salafi leaders won the villagers’ trust. The Salafi MP met with the villagers and took their file to Parliament. Even more, one of the Salafi grassroots leaders is the head of the small farmers syndicate.

On peut être pauvre voire même rural, et avoir une conscience de ses intérêts – de classe disait-on autrefois. Une leçon pour la gauche, y compris marocaine?

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